← the garden
seedling

Where the damage isn’t.

Survivorship bias: a system fails where no data comes back. Protect the invisible, not the visible.

VORONOIA Voronoi map — the space between the sites is where no data lands. The blind spots.

In WWII the military wanted to armor the bombers where the returning planes showed the most bullet holes. Abraham Wald saw the bias — the holes mark where a plane can be hit and still come home. The fatal spots are the ones with no holes; the planes hit there never returned to be counted.

UX runs on the same trap. Metrics show where the system survived contact; the real risk lives in the blind spots, handoffs, and learning loops that fail quietly and return no data. Outcomes improve not by reinforcing what’s most visible, but by protecting what’s invisible until it’s gone.

Links from this note

Systems that learn. →Sharp tools, dangerous magic. →Trajectory over task. →

Linked from

The pastry chef in the cockpit.The Perpendick Law.

Evidence · Wald's bombers

Survivorship-bias bomber diagram

Armor the spots with no holes — the planes hit there never came back. Protect what's invisible until it's gone.

How it has been tended

2026-05-19
by hand

Planted from the Wald survivorship story.